Why Heath Ledger Won't Win a Golden Globe

So, we don't even have Oscar noms yet, but the Golden Globes are soon, and those usually show who's going to be nominated, and usually, who wins the GG wins the Oscar. No, not always, but usually. However, I'm going to go on record and predict who will win the Golden Globes for 2008, and I will show you why. (My data has been collected using the last 18 years of Academy Award Winners.)

1. Movies about real people and/or events almost never win Best Picture, but the actors in actresses in those movies usually do take home the statues in their category. Examples: Forrest Whitaker ("Last King of Scotland"), Phillip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote"), Jamie Foxx ("Ray"), Adrien Brody ("The Pianist"), Julia Roberts ("Erin Brockovich") Tom Hanks ("Philadelphia") (Also if the main character of the movie was murdered in real life, that's a bonus point.)

2. Previous winners have a better chance of winning again over people who have been nominated and never won. First time nominees also tend to do better than those have been nominated but not won. Examples: Tom Hanks & Kevin Spacey (multiple winners), Halle Berry, Jamie Foxx, and Jennifer Hudson (First time nominees)

3. Blockbusters have a 50/50 chance, depending on a lot of other factors. "Titanic" is an example of this. It was a blockbuster, but it was about a real event. James Cameron had never won an Oscar or been nominated, but neither had any of the other people in the category. Usually, if a blockbuster movie is nominated, its chance of winning also depends on the other films nominated alongside it.

4. Actors/Actresses who have had a history of crap movies, or those that have never been considered "serious" actors almost NEVER win. Their nominations are almost a stab in the face, if you think about it. Or worse, they could be snubbed i.e. Jim Carrey for "The Truman Show."

5. Movies released close to the date of the Golden Globes usually do well. Movies that have not even been released by the time the GG noms are out usually do extremely well.


So, with those five things in mind, here are a few predictions for Golden Globes.

Best Actor (Drama)
Leonardo DiCaprio "Revolutionary Road"
Frank Langella "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn "Milk"
Brad Pitt "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"

This one is easy. The previous winners in this category for GG's are Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, and Brad Pitt. One point each for them. Sean Penn and Frank Langella are both in films about real people, both of them with dramatic endings. So another point and a half for Sean Penn. Mickey Rourke is a complete freak with a very colorful personal life. Brad Pitt has never been considered a serious actor. Leonardo DiCaprio has not had the best luck with awards, going so far as being snubbed for "Titanic". So, in the end, the winner is obvious. Sean Penn. He's won before (and Oscar, too), he's in a movie about a real person who is murdered, and the other people just don't stand a chance.

Best Actress Drama
Anne Hathaway "Rachel Getting Married"
Angelina Jolie "Changeling"
Meryl Streep "Doubt"
Kristin Scott Thomas "I've Loved You So Long"
Kate Winslet "Revolutionary Road"

This one is a little tough, but historically, the female categories always are. Anne Hathaway has just recently become a serious actress, and after she took of her shirt in "Brokeback Mountain," suddenly Hollywood loves her. I, however, remember "The Princess Diaries." Angelina Jolie has won before and is in a movie about someone real, and Meryl Streep has so many nominations and wins it's almost obscene. Kristin Scott Thomas is in a movie I've never heard of, and Hollywood loves Kate Winslet, but not usually enough to give her an award. So, I'm going out on a limb to say the winner will be Meryl Streep.


Just to be clear, the GG's don't separate Supporting Actors and Actresses into the two categories of Drama and Musical/Comedy.



Best Supporting Actor
Tom Cruise "Tropic Thunder"
Robert Downey Jr. "Tropic Thunder"
Ralph Fiennes "The Duchess"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman "Doubt"
Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"

Here is the category that everyone will be watching because of the Heath Ledger nomination that everyone knew he was going to get. Unfortunately, though I think he deserves it, it's almost impossible for him to win. But, I digress...

"Tropic Thunder" is a comedy, and comedies almost never win. So Tom Cruise and Robert Downey Jr. are both out. (Besides that, Tom Cruise is crazy, and Robert Downey Jr. was in "Iron Man." Minus points for both of them.) No one has seen "The Duchess" as far as I can tell, and "Doubt"is in limited release, so those are both minus points, but Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Ralph Fiennes have both been nominated a gazillion times, but Phillip Seymour Hoffman has won an Oscar. Alternately, Ralph Fiennes plays a real person, which usually helps. Heath Ledger has been nominated for an Oscar before, but he has so much working against him. First, he is dead. They never give awards to dead people. Second, he was in a movie that was a blockbuster and received no other nominations, and second and a half, it was a Batman movie. Third, he has never won a freaking thing. So, though I, and half the waking world, thinks he deserves it, he will not win. Phillip Seymour Hoffman will, and he'll win it for playing a possible child molesting priest. Lovely.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Viola Davis "Doubt"
Marisa Tomei "The Wrestler"
Kate Winslet "The Reader"

Again, very hard to tell. Amy Adams is suddenly everybody's favorite, though I have no idea why. Penelope Cruz has won before, so she has that working for her. Viola Davis is virtually unknown, so that might help her. Marisa Tomei has won an Oscar in the past, but she is in a very quirky movie, and that never works out. However, Kate Winslet is nominated in two categories, so that will probably give her the win. Plus, "The Reader" is about Nazis and Nazi movies almost always win out over everything else. Kate Winslet it is.


Best Picture Drama
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

I have never seen a more random assortment of movies in my life. I'm suprised "Milk" wasn't nominated. Anyway, here we go. No one in Hollywood will forgive David Fincher for "Fight Club" or "Se7en", so he's probably shot himself in the foot. "Frost/Nixon" is about a real thing, so that might hurt. "The Reader" has Nazis and Nazis = awards. "Revolutionary Road" is one of the most popular books ever, which might help, but the premise is still a snore, which also might help. "Slumdog Millionaire" is a movie that no one has ever heard of, and it is literally about the Hindi version of "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?" and even has a Bollywood dance number at the end. It probably sounds crazy, but I think it will be "Slumdog Millionaire." It will be one of those "Crash" moments where everyone goes "OMGWTF?" and the makers will be so excited and then never make another movie again.

Those are just a few predictions for the categories that I watch most closely. I don't traffic in the nonsense of the categories for Musical/Comedy. I'm not even sure why they are included at the GGs except that a lot of the most popular movies fall into one of those categories, and maybe they feel bad for the actors and directors. Who knows.